Ciclone sull’Italia, ecco il maltempo estremo: le previsioni meteo

Ondata di maltempo estremo sull’Italia, in particolare al Nord ma non solo, a causa di un fronte caldo nordafricano e di un ciclone atlantico. Nubifragi, alluvioni, acquazzoni e criticità previste ovunque nel quadro delineato dagli esperti nelle previsioni meteo di oggi, 17 ottobre, e per i giorni a venire.

Temporali intensi, le previsioni degli esperti

Andrea Garbinato, responsabile redazione del sito www.iLMeteo.it, conferma il risultato della somma delle due perturbazioni: entro martedì 22 ottobre avremo accumuli eccezionali concentrati in 3-4 giorni, anche oltre i 400 litri per metro quadrato, in pratica quasi la metà di quanto piove in un anno.

Nelle ultime ore, intanto, il fronte caldo nordafricano ha spinto tanta sabbia del deserto nei cieli italiani ma soprattutto ha già favorito nubifragi e alluvioni sul Nord-Ovest, soprattutto lungo la linea di convergenza tra Scirocco e Tramontana. Questo fronte sarà ancora attivo giovedì, con piogge abbondanti su Nord-Ovest e Toscana costiera nella prima parte della giornata, poi tra pomeriggio e sera anche verso le restanti regioni centrali tirreniche. Anche sul Nord-Est ci saranno acquazzoni intensi nella seconda parte del giovedì con l’ingresso del ciclone atlantico e di un fronte freddo molto attivo.

Venerdì ritroveremo infatti maltempo su quasi tutta l’Italia e un graduale calo delle temperature: le massime più elevate sono previste sul versante centro-meridionale adriatico ma non andremo oltre i 25°C. Dopo numerose giornate tipiche dell’Ottobrata, con punte di 33-34°C sulle Isole Maggiori, possiamo dire che l’Autunno è arrivato ovunque.

Ma attenzione, durante il weekend la probabile formazione di un ciclone simil-tropicale con tanto vapore all’interno e un cuore caldo (temperatura dell’occhio del ciclone maggiore delle spire nuvolose esterne) potrebbe portare alluvioni al Sud: al momento, si prevedono quantitativi di pioggia ‘surreali’, incredibili. Purtroppo la temperatura del mare ancora calda e la potenza prevista del ciclone simil-tropicale potrebbero scaricare più di 400 litri di pioggia su ogni metro quadrato, in pratica il contenuto di due vasche da bagno.

Al momento la zona prevista per questo impatto estremo è la Calabria ionica, ma non è possibile dare indicazioni precise con tre-quattro giorni di anticipo: il ciclone simil-tropicale seguirà una traiettoria che al momento non può essere prevista con certezza al 100%.

Di certo nel weekend pioverà su quasi tutta l’Italia, sabato più forte al Nord-Est e al Sud, domenica soprattutto al Sud; e sulle regioni meridionali il ciclone potrebbe colpire ancora fino a lunedì e localmente martedì.

In sintesi, il doppio attacco dal Nord Africa e poi dall’Atlantico, insieme alla temperatura del Mar Mediterraneo ancora calda, genererà potenziali situazioni alluvionali da Nord a Sud: non possiamo escludere criticità ovunque, al massimo stimiamo un minor quantitativo di pioggia in Sardegna e sul medio Adriatico, due zone che sembrano meno impattate dal previsto violento diluvio autunnale.

Le previsioni nel dettaglio

Giovedì 17. Al Nord: piogge via via più intense dal Nord Ovest verso il Nord Est. Al Centro: maltempo specie dal pomeriggio su Toscana e poi Umbria e Lazio. Al Sud: ultime ore di sole e caldo.

Venerdì 18. Al Nord: fortemente instabile. Al Centro: maltempo. Al Sud: rovesci forti dalla sera.

Sabato 19. Al Nord: maltempo diffuso. Al Centro: brutto tempo ovunque. Al Sud: maltempo.

Tendenza: domenica ancora con piogge sparse, forti al Sud almeno fino a martedì.

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