COVID: + 26 mila contagi in 24 ore. RT supera 1.5, l’Italia verso lo scenario 4

I dati dell’emergenza Covid nelle ultime 24 ore in Italia: i positivi sono 26.831(il giorno prima 24.991), i morti sono 217 (il giorno prima 205). In totale i casi in Italia sono 616.595, le vittime 38.122. Tra le regioni con il maggior numero di nuovi positivi è prima la Lombardia con 7.339, quindi la Campania con 3.103, il Piemonte con 2.585, il Veneto con 2.109, il Lazio con 1.995.

Sono 201.452 i tamponi effettuati nelle ultime 24 ore, i pazienti in terapia intensiva sono 115 in più nelle ultime 24 ore (ieri l’aumento era stato di 125), per un totale di 1.651 persone in rianimazione. Nei reparti ordinari ci sono ora 15.964 pazienti, con un incremento di 983 unità. Gli attualmente positivi sono arrivati a 299.191, ben 22.734 più di ieri. Di questi, 281.576 sono le persone in isolamento domiciliare mentre i guariti sono 279.282, in aumento di 3.878 rispetto a ieri.

I numeri sui contagi da Covid-19 in costante crescita, oggi quasi 27mila, ed il valore attuale dell’indice di trasmissibilità Rt probabilmente superiore ad 1,5 in gran parte delle regioni proiettano presumibilmente l’Italia verso lo scenario 4, l’ultimo ed il più grave previsto nel documento ‘Prevenzione e risposta a COVID-19′ redatto dall’Iss.

Attualmente, sulla base dei 4 scenari descritti nel documento Iss, l’Italia si colloca nello scenario 3, con una situazione caratterizzata da “trasmissibilità sostenuta e diffusa” del virus con “rischi di tenuta del sistema sanitario nel medio periodo” e valori di Rt regionali prevalentemente e significativamente compresi tra 1,25 e 1,5 .

L’analisi dell’andamento della curva epidemica indica, però, come l’Italia sia ormai molto vicina allo scenario 4. Questo scenario con “i valori di Rt regionali sono prevalentemente e significativamente maggiori di 1,5″, riporta il documento dell’ISS, “potrebbe portare rapidamente a una numerosità di casi elevata e chiari segnali di sovraccarico dei servizi assistenziali, senza la possibilità di tracciare l’origine dei nuovi casi”.
Ed ancora: “Se la situazione di rischio alto dovesse persistere per un periodo di più di tre settimane, si rendono molto probabilmente necessarie – avverte l’iss – misure di contenimento molto aggressive”. (A.N)

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