COVID: Calabria torna Gialla con RT 0,74 e rischio «Moderato ad alta probabilità di progressione». Dati e tabelle del Ministero

Zona arancione per Sicilia, Sardegna e Valle d’Aosta da lunedì 10 maggio. Zona gialla per tutte le altre regioni, compresa la Calabria, con regole per spostamenti liberi e ristoranti aperti a pranzo e cena all’aperto. Nessuna regione in zona rossa.

Di seguito l’andamento epidemiologico in Calabria, secondo i dati del ministero (Monitoraggio Fase 2 (DM Salute 30 aprile 2020) Dati relativi alla settimana 26/4/2021-2/5/2021 aggiornati al 5/5/2021) Casi totali: 60999 | Incidenza cumulativa: 3248.55 per 100000 – Casi con data prelievo/diagnosi nella settimana 26/4/2021-2/5/2021: 2283 | Incidenza: 121.58 per 100000 – Rt: 0.75 (CI: 0.58-0.94) [medio 14gg].

Si riporta una analisi dei dati relativi al periodo 26 aprile – 02 maggio 2021. Per i tempi che intercorrono tra l’esposizione al patogeno e lo sviluppo di sintomi e tra questi e la diagnosi e successiva notifica, verosimilmente molti dei casi notificati in questa settimana hanno contratto l’infezione nella prima metà di aprile. • Questa settimana continua il calo nell’incidenza settimanale (127 per 100.000 abitanti (26/04/2021-02/05/2021)1 vs 146 per 100.000 abitanti (19/04/2021-25/04/2021), dati flusso ISS). Sebbene la campagna vaccinale progredisca sempre più velocemente, complessivamente, l’incidenza resta elevata e ancora lontana da livelli (50 per 100.000) che permetterebbero il contenimento dei nuovi casi.

• Nel periodo 14 – 27 aprile 2021, l’Rt medio calcolato sui casi sintomatici è stato pari a 0,89 (range 0,85– 0,91), in lieve aumento rispetto alla settimana precedente, ma sotto l’uno anche nel limite superiore. Per dettagli sulle modalità di calcolo ed interpretazione dell’Rt riportato si rimanda all’approfondimento disponibile sul sito dell’Istituto Superiore di Sanità (https://www.iss.it/primo-piano/-/asset_publisher/o4oGR9qmvUz9/content/id/5477037).

• Si osserva un miglioramento generale del rischio, con nessuna Regione a rischio alto secondo il DM del 30 Aprile 2020 per seconda settimana consecutiva. Sei Regioni/PPAA hanno una classificazione di rischio moderato (di cui una, Calabria, ad alta probabilità di progressione a rischio alto nelle prossime settimane) e 15 Regioni/PPAA che hanno una classificazione di rischio basso. Una Regione (Molise) e una Provincia Autonoma (Bolzano) hanno un Rt puntuale maggiore di uno, ma con il limite inferiore sotto l’uno. Tutte le Regioni/PPAA hanno una trasmissibilità compatibile con uno scenario di tipo uno.

• Scende il numero di Regioni/PPAA che hanno un tasso di occupazione in terapia intensiva e/o aree mediche sopra la soglia critica (5 Regioni/PPAA vs 8 della settimana precedente). Il tasso di occupazione in terapia intensiva a livello nazionale è sotto la critica (27%), con una diminuzione nel numero di persone ricoverate che passa da 2.748 (27/04/2021) a 2.423 (04/05/2021). Il tasso di occupazione in aree mediche a livello nazionale scende ulteriormente ed è sotto la soglia critica (29%). Il numero di persone ricoverate in queste aree passa da 20.312 (27/04/2021) a 18.176 (04/05/2021). • Soltanto una Regione (Calabria) riporta una allerta di resilienza, nessuna riporta molteplici allerte.

• Si osserva una ulteriore diminuzione nel numero di nuovi casi non associati a catene di trasmissione (24.397 vs 27.561 la settimana precedente). La percentuale dei casi rilevati attraverso l’attività di tracciamento dei contatti è in lieve aumento (38,6% vs 38,3% la scorsa settimana). Scende, invece, la percentuale dei casi rilevati attraverso la comparsa dei sintomi (38,3% vs 38,7%). Infine, il 23,1% è stato diagnosticato attraverso attività di screening. (Fonte: Ministero della Salute)

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