COVID ITALIA. Report settimanale: rischio Alto ma RT migliora, Calabria “non valutabile” in Zona Arancione. I dati

Monitoraggio Fase 2 Dati relativi alla settimana 16-22 novembre 2020 (aggiornati al 25 novembre 2020). I dati della regione CALABRIA – Casi totali: 15239 | Incidenza cumulativa: 791.76 per 100000 – Casi con data prelievo/diagnosi nella settimana 16/11-22/11: 2924 | Incidenza: 151.92 per 100000 – Rt: 0.94 (CI: 0.56-1.34) [medio 14gg]. Classificazione complessiva di rischio: NON VALUTABILE (equiparato a Rischio Alto).

Nella settimana di monitoraggio “quasi tutte le Regioni o Province autonome sono ancora classificate a rischio alto di una epidemia non controllata e non gestibile sul territorio, o a rischio moderato con alta probabilità di progredire a rischio alto nelle prossime settimane. In particolare, 10 Regioni o Province autonome sono classificate a rischio alto di una trasmissione di Sars-CoV-2″.

In una tabella del report si legge che le 10 Regioni a rischio alto o equiparato ad alto sono: Abruzzo, Calabria (non valutabile), Campania, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardia, Pa Bolzano, Puglia, Sardegna e Toscana. La Calabria “è considerata a rischio alto a titolo precauzionale – si precisa – in quanto non valutabile in modo attendibile per completezza del dato di sorveglianza insufficiente al momento della valutazione anche per la stima dell’Rt”.

Fra le 10 Regioni, “9 sono state classificate a rischio alto o equiparate a rischio alto per 3 o più settimane consecutive”, e “questo prevede specifiche misure da adottare a livello provinciale e regionale in base al documento ‘Prevenzione e risposta a Covid-19: evoluzione della strategia e pianificazione nella fase di transizione per il periodo autunno-invernale’ trasmesso con Circolare del Ministero della Salute del 12 ottobre”.

“Delle 10 aree a rischio alto o ad esso equiparate – prosegue il report – 5 presentano una trasmissibilità calcolata al 4 novembre compatibile con uno scenario di trasmissione 2 e le 5 restanti hanno uno scenario di tipo 1, tranne in un caso” appunto “in cui tale classificazione non è considerata affidabile per incompletezza dei dati. Le rimanenti sono classificate a rischio moderato di cui 7 con una probabilità elevata di progredire a rischio alto nel prossimo mese, e presentano una trasmissibilità calcolata al 4 novembre compatibile con uno scenario di trasmissione 2 in 2 di queste e con uno scenario di tipo 1 per la rimanente”.

Data “la trasmissibilità e la probabilità elevata di un imminente passaggio alla classificazione di rischio alto – si legge nel documento – si raccomanda alle autorità sanitarie delle 7 Regioni o Province autonome con una probabilità elevata di progredire a rischio alto nel prossimo mese di valutare la opportunità di adottare, anche a livello sub-regionale, ulteriori misure di mitigazione”.

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