COVID ITALIA. Report settimanale: RT scende ma rischio ancora alto. Calabria Zona Rossa, i dati

Il report della Cabina di regia numero 27 relativo al periodo 9 – 15 novembre mostra che l’incidenza delle nuove diagnosi ha raggiunto livelli molto elevati e diffusi in tutto il Paese.
Si riporta una analisi dei dati relativi al periodo 9 – 15 novembre 2020. Per i tempi che intercorrono tra l’esposizione al patogeno e lo sviluppo di sintomi e tra questi e la diagnosi e successiva notifica, verosimilmente molti dei casi notificati in questa settimana hanno contratto l’infezione nella terza decade di ottobre.

Calabria: Casi totali: 10685 | Incidenza cumulativa: 555.15 per 100000 | Casi con data prelievo/diagnosi nella settimana 9/11-15/11: 1511 | Incidenza: 78.51 per 100000 | Rt: 1.09 (CI: 0.74-1.56) [medio 14gg]
• Nella settimana di monitoraggio, quasi tutte le Regioni/PA sono ancora classificate a rischio alto di una epidemia non controllata e non gestibile sul territorio o a rischio moderato con alta probabilità di progredire a rischio alto nelle prossime settimane.
• In particolare 17 Regioni/PA sono classificate a rischio Alto di una trasmissione di SARS-CoV-2. Di queste, 2 sono considerate a rischio alto a titolo precauzionale in quanto non valutabili in modo attendibile per completezza del dato di sorveglianza, insufficiente al momento della valutazione. Di queste 17, 11 sono state classificate a rischio Alto e/o equiparate a rischio Alto per 3 o più settimane
consecutive; questo prevede specifiche misure da adottare a livello provinciale e regionale in base al documento “Prevenzione e risposta a Covid-19: evoluzione della strategia e pianificazione nella fase di transizione per il periodo autunno-invernale” trasmesso con Circolare del Ministero della Salute del 12/10/2020 Prot. 32732. Delle 17 Regioni/PA a rischio Alto o ad esso equiparate, 3 presentano una trasmissibilità calcolata al 4 novembre compatibile con uno scenario di trasmissione 3, 9 con uno scenario di tipo 2 e le 5 restanti con uno scenario di tipo 1.

• Le rimanenti Regioni/PA sono classificate a rischio moderato di cui 3 con una probabilità elevata di progredire a rischio alto nel prossimo mese e presentano una trasmissibilità calcolata al 4 novembre compatibile con uno scenario di trasmissione 2 in tre di queste e con uno scenario di tipo 1 per la rimanente. Data la trasmissibilità e la probabilità elevata di un imminente passaggio alla classificazione di rischio alto si raccomanda alle autorità sanitarie delle 3 Regioni/PA con una probabilità elevata di progredire a rischio alto nel prossimo mese di valutare la possibile adozione di ulteriori misure di mitigazione previste come riportato nel documento “Prevenzione e risposta a Covid-19: evoluzione della strategia e pianificazione nella fase di transizione per il periodo autunno-invernale” trasmesso con Circolare del Ministero della Salute del 12/10/2020 Prot. 32732, in raccordo con il Ministero della
Salute.
Si evidenzia un carico rilevante di Covid-19 sui servizi sanitari territoriali e ospedalieri.L’aumento continuo dei ricoveri Covid-19 implica una inevitabile erosione delle risorse disponibili per l’assistenza ospedaliera ai pazienti con altre patologie.
L’incidenza elevata, seppure con un iniziale rallentamento dell’indice di trasmissione, richiede il mantenimento rigoroso delle misure in essere per consentire una diminuzione, la più rapida possibile, delle infezioni.

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