Fase 2 Proiezioni: ecco le prime regioni con zero nuovi casi Covid-19. Calabria prima (22 maggio) seguita da Umbria (23 maggio), Lombardia ad agosto

Regioni italiane fuori dal tunnel di Covid-19 in ordine sparso, o meglio in gruppi, con i primi a ‘festeggiare’ già dai prossimi giorni e la Lombardia che dovrà aspettare agosto. Secondo le proiezioni dell’Osservatorio nazionale sulla salute nelle Regioni italiane, infatti, a uscire per prime dal contagio da Sars-CoV-2 (cioè zero nuovi casi) dovrebbero essere le due Province autonome di Bolzano e Trento, rispettivamente il 21 e 22 maggio. Bene anche la Calabria (22 maggio), seguita da Umbria (23 maggio), Sardegna (24), Basilicata (26) e Valle d’Aosta (29).

Per l’azzeramento dei contagi occorrerà aspettare il mese di giugno in Abruzzo (1 giugno), Puglia (3), Campania (3) Sicilia (6), Toscana (6), Veneto (9), Friuli Venezia Giulia (12), Lazio (17), Emilia-Romagna (22), Marche (23), Liguria (24) e Piemonte (26).

Mentre per il Molise, che ha sperimentato un andamento dei contagi molto particolare, tanto che la curva dei nuovi contagi è pressoché parallela all’asse orizzontale, questo “rende impossibile avanzare ipotesi sull’azzeramento”. La motivazione potrebbe risiedere nel fatto che “negli ultimi 10 giorni sono stati riscontrati nuovi focolai che hanno invertito la dinamica discendente della curva”. Comunque, gli esperti sottolineano che il numero dei contagi degli ultimi 2 giorni è molto basso.

Il quadro prospettico è molto diverso invece “in Lombardia, regione dalla quale sono partiti i primi contagi da Covid-19, per la quale secondo i dati attuali l’azzeramento dei nuovi casi non avverrebbe prima del 13 agosto”.

Queste stime sono fatte con un mantenimento della mobilità sociale a livelli estremamente contenuti, e sarà necessario rivederle alla luce dell’ultimo Dpcm che approva misure finalizzate all’attenuazione sostanziale di queste limitazioni”, fanno sapere gli esperti dell’Osservatorio nazionale sulla salute nelle regioni italiane, coordinato da Walter Ricciardi, direttore dell’Osservatorio e ordinario di Igiene generale e applicata all’Università Cattolica, e da Alessandro Solipaca, direttore scientifico dell’Osservatorio. (ADNKRONOS)

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