Manovra 2024, riparte il cantiere dopo pausa estiva: nodo risorse

Riparte il cantiere della manovra 2024 dopo la pausa estiva. Oggi 27 agosto, il ministro dell’Economia Giancarlo Giorgetti rientrerà al Mef dove inizieranno le prime ricognizioni tecniche post vacanze in vista della presentazione, entro il 20 settembre, del Piano strutturale di bilancio che ha preso il posto della Nadef. Il Bilancio sarà anche al centro del vertice di maggioranza in programma per venerdì 30 agosto.

Prima delle vacanze il ministro aveva incontrato separatamente vari colleghi di governo per un confronto sui tagli di spesa. Anche quest’anno si presenta il nodo risorse da sciogliere, ma questa volta la risoluzione del rebus è resa più ardua sia per il ritorno delle regole di Maastricht, seppur riformate, sia perché l’Italia è sotto procedura per deficit eccessivo quindi dovrebbe tagliare il disavanzo strutturale almeno dello 0,5% annuo per i prossimi sette anni, circa 10 miliardi l’anno.

A volere riconfermare le misure della precedente manovra e le spese inderogabili, il conto partirebbe da oltre 20 miliardi di euro. Tra le principali voci, il taglio del cuneo a 14 milioni di lavoratori (10,7 miliardi) e l’accorpamento delle prime due aliquote Irpef (circa 4 miliardi); i sostegni per la Zes pesano per 1,9 miliardi; per le missioni internazionali serve almeno 1 miliardo; per la detassazione del welfare aziendale e dei premi di produttività oltre 800 milioni.

Coperture dalla spending review

Per le coperture il governo punta sulla spending review, sugli stanziamenti di misure abolite, come l’Ace, e sulle entrate fiscali. Dal concordato biennale proposto a 2,7 milioni di autonomi e imprese sui redditi da dichiarare nel 2024 e 2025 con la garanzia di essere esclusi dai controlli si punta ad un gettito pari a circa 2 miliardi. Ma la stima appare – secondo fonti parlamentari – troppo ottimistica visto che oltre 1 milione dei contribuenti interessati dal concordato presenta un indice di affidabilità fiscale basso sollevando qualche perplessità sulla volontà di questi ultimi di aderire entro il 31 ottobre.

Nel novero delle risorse anche gli incassi dal pagamento delle ultime rate della rottamazione quater prorogata al 15 settembre.

Ne consegue che il quadro sulle coperture sarà chiaro solo più avanti. Intanto entro il 20 ottobre il governo dovrà mettere mano al Documento programmatico di Bilancio da trasmettere a Bruxelles e al Parlamento, dopo arriverà l’articolato della manovra, da approvare entro il 31 dicembre.

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