Manovra, rush per via libera oggi: si tratta su coperture

Potrebbe andare avanti fino all’ultimo il lavoro per cesellare gli stanziamenti della manovra 2025 da circa 25 miliardi di euro. Gli ultimi giorni hanno visto divergenze tra i ministri e il titolare di via XX settembre Giancarlo Giorgetti sui tagli di spesa necessari per assicurare le coperture del Bilancio e far quadrare i conti ma alla fine, osservano fonti della maggioranza, il governo troverà la sintesi per dare un messaggio di compatezza a livello interno ed esterno, dall’opposizione agli investitori esteri.

Le tabelle con le proiezioni delle principali voci di entrata e di spesa saranno indicate nel Documento programmatico di Bilancio atteso in Consiglio dei ministri oggi. La legge di Bilancio redatta in base agli schemi del Dpb verrà invece trasmessa al Parlamento entro lunedì prossimo, per l’avvio dell’esame che quest’anno parte dalla Camera. In mezzo a queste scadenze c’è il verdetto dei rating: venerdì quelli di S&P Global e di Fitch. Più avanti, il 22 novembre, arriverà il giudizio di Moody’s.

Le risorse

Il nodo delle risorse verrà sciolto probabilmente solo all’ultimo: vista la reticenza di alcuni ministri a conseguire i tagli richiesti dal Tesoro la trattativa potrebbe arrivare fino al tavolo del Consiglio dei ministri, osservano le fonti, ma alla fine verrà trovato – come in altre occasioni – un ragionevole compromesso per non intaccare l’unità della maggioranza. Quanto alle priorità della manovra, le ha elencate lo stesso Giorgetti in audizione sul Piano strutturale di Bilancio martedì scorso davanti alle commissioni Bilancio di Camera e Senato: conferma del taglio del cuneo fiscale per i redditi fino a 35mila euro (circa 14 milioni di lavoratori) e dell’accorpamento delle prime due aliquote Irpef; il pacchetto famiglie con gli aiuti ai nuclei numerosi; il rinnovo dei contratti della pubblica amministrazione e i fondi per la sanità.

Dei 25 miliardi necessari per finanziare questo menù, più le spese indifferibili, il Mef può contare su circa 16 miliardi: 10 miliardi in arrivo dalla stima migliore delle attese del deficit-pil 2024 al 3,8% dal precedente 4,3% (0,5 punti percentuali in meno, circa 10 miliardi appunto) e circa 6 miliardi di accantonamenti fiscali, dalla cancellazione dell’Ace al fondo per il taglio delle tasse.

Il resto delle coperture sarà oggetto di scrupoloso scrutinio fino all’ultimo. Dai tagli alle amministrazioni centrali e ai Comuni si punta a racimolare 3 miliardi, ma è probabile che si riescano a dragare solo 2 miliardi; altri 2 miliardi potrebbero arrivare dal concordato preventivo biennale ma la cifra sarà nota in via definitiva solo il 31 ottobre quando scadrà il termine per le adesioni. Altre risorse potrebbero arrivare dalla potatura delle micro spese fiscali e dal contributo di solidarietà eventualmente richiesto alle grandi multinazionali dell’high tech e alle aziende che hanno visto un’impennata dei profitti con l’attuale congiuntura di alti tassi interesse, conflitti e rischi climatici. Trapela anche l’ipotesi di una ‘stretta’ per il settore dei giochi dalla quale ricavare circa mezzo miliardo.

Cdm alle 20

“Il Consiglio dei ministri -informa Palazzo Chigi- è convocato alle ore 20 a Palazzo Chigi, per l’esame del seguente ordine del giorno: schema di decreto-legge sulle misure urgenti in materia economica e fiscale e in favore degli enti territoriali (presidenza – Economia e finanze); schema di disegno di legge sul Bilancio di previsione dello Stato per l’anno finanziario 2025 e bilancio pluriennale per il triennio 2025-2027 (Economia e finanze); Documento programmatico di bilancio 2025 (informativa) (economia e finanze); leggi regionali; varie ed eventuali”.

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