Open Calabria. Rapporto Svimez 2019: aumentano i divari regionali

di Francesco Aiello

La bassa crescita del Paese. Il rapporto Svimez 2019 sull’economia del Mezzogiorno indica che è dello 0,6% la variazione del PIL del Mezzogiorno registrata nel 2018. Si tratta di un valore di poco inferiore a quello (+0,9%) osservato nelle regioni centro-settentrionali e, in media, nell’intero paese.

Per il 2019, le stime della SVIMEZ indicano che il Sud è a rischio recessione (-0.2% è la variazione del PIL rispetto al 2018), mentre il PIL del Centro-Nord crescerà, ma solo dello 0.3%. In media, l’Italia registrerà una variazione positiva del PIL che sarà di poco superiore allo zero (+0.2%).

Nel 2020, si avrà un incremento del PIL dell’Italia (+0.6%), che è dovuto alla debole ripresa, rispetto al 2019, di ciò che osserveremo nelle regioni meridionali (+0,2%) e nel Centro-Nord (+0,7%). In prospettiva osserveremo, quindi, un paese che continua ad arrancare e un allargamento della forbice tra le aree del paese.

Le regioni del Sud. Su base regionale, il rapporto SVIMEZ 2019 indica che la Calabria è l’unica regione del Mezzogiorno a registrare nel 2018 una variazione negativa del PIL (-0,3%). E’ in Abruzzo, Puglia e Sardegna che si osserva una crescita più sostenuta (+1,7%, +1,3% e +1,2%, rispettivamente), seguite dal Molise e dalla Basilicata (+1%), dalla Sicilia (+0,5%). In Campania, il PIL del 2018 è invariato rispetto al 2017

La riduzione del PIL calabrese del 2018 frena l’inversione di tendenza che si era osservata dal 2015 in poi: nel triennio 2015-18 la Calabria ha registrato una crescita del 2.1%, che è maggiore del dato osservato nello stesso periodo in Molise (+1.6%) e in Sicilia (+1,2%), ma inferiore a quello delle altre regioni meridionali [Abruzzo (+2.2%), Sardegna (3.2%), Campania (4.1%), Puglia (+4.5%) e in Basilicata (-11,4%). In media, la crescita 2015-2018 del Mezzogiorno è stata del 3.3%, inferiore alla ripresa osservata nel Centro Nord (+5.1%).

Le distanze con il periodo pre-crisi. Tuttavia, il paese non ha ancora recuperato gli effetti della crisi del 2008 e il ritardo è sostanziale in tutto il Mezzogiorno: nelle regioni meridionali il PIL del 2018 è più di dieci punti percentuali (-10,4%) più basso di quello del 2008. Il Centro Nord ha quasi annullato le distanze (-2,4%). Il dato medio italiano è pari a -4.3%).

In questo confronto pre-crisi, la Calabria registra una distanza del PIL di -12,3%, mentre il gap delle altre regioni è il seguente: Abruzzo (-5,1%), Sicilia (–13,9), Molise (–20,3%), Puglia (–6,7%), Sardegna (–8,6%), Campania (-12.3%). La regione meridionale che ha recuperato la riduzione del PIL osservata negli anni della crisi è la Basilicata (-0.4%).

E’ da questi dati impietosi che deve prendere corpo una lettura seria e rigorosa delle cause del declino del paese (più a Sud che a Nord) e delle politiche e strategie da attuare per invertire le tendenze in atto. La pubblicazione del Rapporto Svimez 2019 rimane sempre un’utile occasione per irrobustire questo dibattito. Due le domande da cui ripartire: (A) la SVIMEZ interpreta in modo compiuto le determinanti dei divari regionali? (B) Propone politiche economiche efficaci per il Sud e per il paese? DA OPEN CALABRIA

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