Primo trimestre 2018: esplodono le esportazioni della Calabria

Il 12 giugno 2018, l’Istat ha pubblicato i dati delle esportazioni italiane relative al primo trimestre 2018. Se si fa riferimento all’ultimo trimestre del 2017, le esportazioni diminuiscono in tutte le aree del paese: la riduzione è pari a -4-4% per le regioni meridionali, -4,6% per il Nord-est, -1,8% per il Centro e -0,3% per il Nord-ovest.

Tuttavia, il confronto più utile è quello con il primo trimestre del 2017. Depurando, quindi, i dati dall’effetto congiunturale, l’Istat calcola che la crescita tendenziale delle esportazioni italiane è pari al 3,3% ed è molto elevata nel Nord-ovest (+5,3%), nel Nord-est (+4,0%), e nel Mezzogiorno (+3,9%). Nelle regioni del Centro d’Italia, le esportazioni sono in linea con il corrispondente periodo del 2017 (+0,5%).

Su base regionale, è di particolare interesse focalizzare l’attenzione sulle esportazioni della Calabria, le quali fanno registrare un incredibile aumento pari a +34,3% rispetto al I trimestre del 2017. Se nei primi tre mesi del 2017 le esportazioni della Calabria ammontavano a 104 milioni di euro, nel periodo gennaio-marzo 2018 l’export regionale è stato pari a 139 milioni di euro.

Le altre regioni più dinamiche sono la Valle d’Aosta (+19,2%), la Sicilia (+9,5%) e la Campania (+8,3%). La figura 1 mostra come per alcune regioni, la crescita tendenziale sia molto bassa, se non addirittura negativa.

Queste dinamiche devono essere valutate con estrema cautela, poiché i valori di riferimento delle esportazioni calabresi sono ancora estremamente bassi: la regione assorbe una quota di circa lo 0,1% delle esportazioni nazionali.

Questo dato è confermato nel primo trimestre 2018. Tuttavia, l’incremento che si è osservato in questi primi tre mesi dell’anno segnala una certa dinamicità dell’export regionale, la cui variazione tendenziale è di gran lunga superiore a quella delle altre regioni.

Se il dato dovesse essere confermato nei prossimi trimestri, allora si potrebbe sostenere con un minimo di attendibilità che le produzioni regionali iniziano a collocarsi con successo in qualche nicchia di interesse nei mercati internazionali. Forse, la regione inizia a crescere.
Francesco Aiello
Docente Unical
Fondatore di OpenCalabria

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