Trump e Harris, sprint finale: tra un mese le elezioni Usa

Tra meno di un mese gli americani si recheranno alle urne per eleggere il prossimo presidente, al termine di una campagna partita come una riedizione del duello Biden-Trump del 2020 e che il 21 luglio scorso si è trasformata in una corsa alla presidenza tra Trump e Kamala Harris, la vice cui Biden ha ceduto il testimone, dopo aver resistito ad un lungo periodo di pressioni. Da allora, Harris è risultata in vantaggio su Trump nelle medie nazionali dei sondaggi.

A spingerla in avanti nei sondaggi è stato anche il dibattito televisivo in cui i due candidati si sono affrontati in Pennsylvania il 10 settembre. Secondo la maggior parte delle inchieste nazionali condotte nella settimana successiva, la performance di Harris ha contribuito a farle guadagnare qualche punto, con un vantaggio che è passato dai 2,5 punti percentuali del giorno del dibattito ai 3,3 punti di poco più di una settimana dopo. Spinta in avanti marginale, facilitata dai numeri di Trump, che aveva una media in aumento prima del dibattito, scesa di mezzo punto percentuale nella settimana successiva.

Gli stati decisivi

Sondaggi nazionali non necessariamente accurati quanto al risultato finale a causa del sistema dei collegi elettorali, in cui a ogni Stato viene assegnato un numero di voti approssimativamente in linea con la dimensione della sua popolazione. In totale sono in palio 538 voti, quindi 270 quelli necessari ad un candidato per vincere. In realtà sui 50 totali, gli stati che possono riservare sorprese e in cui i candidati hanno la possibilità di decidere la vittoria – ‘battleground states’ o ‘swing states’ sono pochi.

E in questo momento, i sondaggi relativi a quegli stati fotografano una corsa serrata, con i due candidati divisi da non più di due punti percentuali. Tra gli stati in questione c’è la Pennsylvania, fondamentale in quanto ha il maggior numero di voti elettorali dei sette Stati e quindi vincerla rende più facile raggiungere i 270 voti necessari. A dimostrazione di come la corsa sia cambiata da quando Harris è diventato il candidato democratico, il giorno in cui Biden ha abbandonato risultava in svantaggio su Trump di quasi cinque punti percentuali in media in questi sette Stati, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan e Wisconsin. Harris è ora in testa in Michigan, Pennsylvania e Wisconsin dall’inizio di agosto, anche se con margini ancora ridotti.

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