Ucraina-Russia, controffensiva Kiev: comincia il mese decisivo

L’Ucraina ha a disposizione ancora un mese, forse 45 giorni, per ottenere il massimo dalla controffensiva nella guerra contro la Russia. Poi, con il peggioramento delle condizioni meteo e il successivo arrivo dell’inverno, le manovre sul campo diventeranno più complesse. A delineare il quadro, mentre le operazioni delle forze di Kiev entrano in una fase cruciale, è il generale Mark Milley, capo di stato maggiore americano, che per ora rifiuta giudizi eccessivamente negattivi.

“L’offensiva è iniziata circa 90 giorni fa. E’ andata più lentamente del previsto. Ma c’è differenza fra quella che Clausewitz chiamava la guerra sulla carta e la guerra reale”, dice il generale, sottolineando che vi sono ancora “30 0 45 giorni, un periodo considerevole” di combattimento prima che arrivino le piogge e il freddo.

“E’ troppo presto per dire come andrà a finire. Gli ucraini hanno ottenuto parziali successi in quello che hanno fatto, e questo è importante”. “Poi arriveranno le piogge. E sarà molto fangoso. A quel punto sarà difficile manovrare e poi arriverà l’inverno. In quella fase vedremo come stanno le cose. Ma ora è troppo presto per dire se la controffensiva è fallita o no“, sottolinea Milley.

LE NUOVE ARMI IN ARRIVO, COSA CAMBIA

Nelle prossime settimane, Kiev avrà a disposizione il nuovo pacchetto di aiuti predisposto da Washington. In arrivo le munizioni all’uranio impoverito, in particolare i proiettili da 120 mm per i tank Abrams, che dovrebbero debuttare a breve in Ucraina. Gli Stati Uniti, inoltre, stanno valutando l’invio di missili a lungo raggio, gli Atacms, che potrebbero essere un autentico ‘game changer’ in un contesto attualmente quasi bloccato.

“Gli ucraini hanno ottenuto progressi costanti. Non sono finiti, la guerra non è finita. Non hanno concluso questa fase, che stanno cercando di completare con una serie di obiettivi. E’ troppo presto per dire come finirà”, ribadisce il generale.

CONTROFFENSIVA, DOVE SONO ARRIVATI GLI UCRAINI

Le ultime news fanno riferimento a progressi nell’area di Robotyne, nella regione di Zaporizhzhia, non lontano dal nodo strategico di Tokmak, che ha un alto valore logistico per la Russia. “Continuiamo a fare piccoli passi avanti nell’area di Robotyne. E’ stato liberato circa un chilometro e mezzo quadrato di territorio ucraino”, fa sapere il comando meridionale, senza però chiarire quando siano stati compiuti gli ultimi progressi.

Nelle varie analisi, per avere un quadro più completo si può fare riferimento anche alla controffensiva che Kiev ha condotto nella seconda parte del 2022. Le forze russe lo scorso anno sono state spinte verso est dalla regione di Kharkiv: l’Ucraina ha riconquistato la città di Lyman il 30 settembre 2022 e dopo altre 6 settimane, all’incirca a metà novembre, ha ottenuto la liberazione di Kherson.

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